Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Nashville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright Statr and author of the said unemployment increases will continuse at their accelerated pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton MetropolitanStatistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Miami and Preble counties, is projectee to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,4000 in the first quarterf of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longreliede on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the reportg show employment in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the firstf quarter of this year to 36,100 by the thir quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durable goodds manufacturing will be hitin particular, Traynor “People aren’t spending. They are waitinv to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectesdto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100p by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsf quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includes financial service, business service, utilitiee and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,200 by the thirde quarter, down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent decline.
“Thde next year to year and a half will be an unpleasangt time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructiob employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonal employment, to 13,400 from 11,40 in the first quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewe than the same time period last year. One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is health In fact, Traynor said he expects healthu care to add some jobs by the thirdr quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firstf quarter. He said the rate of declinew in gross domestic product will but remain negative through the third quarter and maybes into the fourth quarter ofthis year.
Even when GDP does becomde positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becauswe it is a lagging indicatort ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said there is a grear deal of uncertainty still on thenational level, as businesses try to determinwe the impact of government Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenf is not going away anytime “This is something we’re going to be livingb with for quite a well into next year,” he